Annual cost of NHS will rise by £50 billion by 2030, says Lord Darzi

NHS productivity will need to improve even if funding requirements are met, says surgeon and Labour peer

Funding for the health service will need to increase from £123 billion in 2017 to £173 billion by 2030 – while maintaining the current adult social care system will require at least an extra £10 billion every year, the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) found.

However, the NHS will have to boost its productivity by one-and-a-half times even if both funding requirements are met, the think tank said.

The findings were presented in an interim report prepared by the IPPR for the Lord Darzi Review of Health and Care. 

Imperial College London chair of surgery Ara Darzi, who is a former health minister, will present his final report – including a proposed long-term funding settlement and plan for reform of health and social care – ahead of the 70th anniversary of the NHS in July. 

He said: 'NHS staff should be congratulated for the improvements they have made to the quality of care they provide.

Radical reform

'But it is getting harder and harder to access that care and the system is in financial distress.

'While the prospect of a long-term funding settlement is welcome, it is vital that it delivers enough money to meet the demands of the decade ahead. Funding the NHS while social care falls over is not an option.'

The report said the 'baby boomer bump' would push NHS costs up, with more older people requiring health and care services.

This is in addition to the pressures caused by a rise in people living with complex conditions, higher expectations of care and the cost of science and technology.

The report said radical reform of the system would be needed to drive productivity, adding: 'This will not be easy but it is far from impossible.'

IPPR director Tom Kibasi said: 'Our research shows that "taxpayer-funded, free at the point of need" is the most efficient way to finance and organise the health service.

'Those who say the NHS is unsustainable are wrong'

'Social and private insurance models in other countries are more costly. That's why those who say the NHS is unsustainable are wrong.

'It is a fundamental error of logic to say that something is unaffordable, so we should move to something more expensive.'

British Medical Association council chair Chaand Nagpaul said: 'The government's approach of cash top-ups and short-term fixes will no longer do.

'The prime minister recently pledged to draw up a long-term funding plan for the NHS but, with funding lagging behind that of other comparable European countries, we need the government to provide concrete details and ensure resources are made available urgently.'

'Best and safest health system in the world'

A Department of Health and Social Care spokesperson said: 'The NHS was recently ranked as the best and safest health system in the world and, as this report makes clear, the quality and safety of care continues to improve.

'But it faces long-term challenges and the prime minister has made clear that the government will work with clinicians, NHS leaders, patient representatives and health experts to put together a long-term plan and multi-year funding settlement for the health service.'

Further information

• Read the full IPPR report

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