Number of older people with care needs 'to rise 25% by 2025'
Research estimates future rates of cardiovascular disease, dementia and other diseases, and the functional disability they may cause
The number of older people with care needs is set to grow by a quarter by 2025, research suggests
The number of older people with care needs is expected to grow by a quarter by 2025, research suggests.
Authors of a study published in the journal Lancet Public Health call for more investment in health and social care, including disease prevention.
The number of people aged over 65 needing care could reach 2.8 million by 2025 in England and Wales, according to the research.
The study was conducted by scientists from the University of Liverpool, University College London, the University of Gdansk and INSERM Centre for Research in Epidemiology and Population Health.
It modelled future trends in disability and life expectancy in England and Wales between 2015 and 2025 by estimating future rates of cardiovascular disease, dementia and other diseases, and the functional disability they may cause.
For people aged 65 in 2025, life expectancy is projected to increase by 1.7 years to 86.8 years, but after age 65 they are likely to have a disability for a quarter of their remaining lifespan.
Dementia represents the biggest growing cause of disability, and rates are predicted to increase by 49% in people aged 65 or over between 2015 and 2025, equating to 699,000 people with dementia care needs in 2025.
The second-largest cause of disability will be diseases including mental health problems, diabetes, musculoskeletal disorders and other chronic diseases, which will increase by 37% over the decade.
In those over 85, these diseases are set to almost double by 2025.
Guzman-Castillo M et al (2017) Forecasted trends in disability and life expectancy in England and Wales up to 2025: a modelling study. Lancet Public Health. doi: 10.1016/ S2468-2667(17)30091-9